Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.466692 1.922758 2.535448 3.439743 4.777737e+00 6.747847e+00 9.996041
2025-01-26 0.973632 1.442591 2.182658 3.503767 5.967843e+00 1.076349e+01 22.056056
2025-02-02 0.733650 1.207129 2.068918 3.911530 8.273979e+00 1.995361e+01 64.091004
2025-02-09 0.582894 1.053585 2.031396 4.530576 1.218180e+01 4.238797e+01 274.424475
2025-02-16 0.449886 0.876599 1.865017 4.818156 1.637181e+01 8.622417e+01 1623.140186
2025-02-23 0.338416 0.697719 1.602874 4.672277 1.956606e+01 1.584749e+02 16074.202326
2025-03-02 0.255617 0.550743 1.345558 4.339050 2.192893e+01 2.785013e+02 951760.358090
2025-03-09 0.212258 0.481815 1.268752 4.651613 3.044630e+01 8.186752e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 0.177626 0.421914 1.188016 4.911675 4.190670e+01 3.074025e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.153154 0.380424 1.146371 5.382393 6.255188e+01 2.548343e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.132759 0.343061 1.099328 5.822532 9.362228e+01 1.270550e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 0.110875 0.293467 0.976863 5.589172 1.127904e+02 7.420395e+11 NaN
2025-04-13 0.090723 0.244591 0.838603 5.102419 1.249146e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.078640 0.218148 0.783512 5.265103 1.808244e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.071195 0.204776 0.781104 6.001069 3.461410e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.065619 0.196016 0.797418 7.120173 8.216186e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.058849 0.180503 0.768811 7.678176 1.650008e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.051408 0.160039 0.699699 7.462071 2.442643e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.044565 0.139974 0.621712 6.903301 3.003473e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.040806 0.131110 0.606497 7.490211 7.802547e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.037339 0.122367 0.586780 7.986971 2.308494e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.034702 0.116294 0.581108 8.876105 1.403109e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.032229 0.110176 0.571386 9.720753 2.305853e+06 NaN NaN